August 26, 2009
Drafting Value Quarterbacks Late
Who would have thought Josh McDaniels could turn Matt Cassel into a Pro Bowl type QB having never started a game since high school? You may be skeptical of the young head coach's people skills having run off Jay Cutler, but he has replaced him with a Cassel-like QB to intelligently fit the challenging system. Orton is going to throw more than he ever did in Chicago, and hit a lot of high percentage passes geared to tack on yards after the catch for Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. Denver's D also went largely unimproved (other than perhaps in scheme and coaching) so they may be behind a lot again this year and rely upon the pass to catch up. Even when ahead, McDaniels is going to be throwing it around.
Getting a system QB late who will throw a lot allows you to load up on quality depth and add additional feature running backs earlier where leagues have historically been won or lost. More recently, though, many NFL teams are going to RB-by-committee, and it really pays to get as much quality RB depth as possible and play the odds. While others in your league are grabbing QBs not named Brees, Manning, or Brady, you can snag RBs like Fred Taylor and rookie of the year contender Knowshon Moreno to add to a stable to quality runners with lots of options as the season (and injuries) develop, while grabbing a comparable QB later. Tim Hightower is another runner who will benefit from Edge being out of town and Beanie Wells unable to stay on the field that might be worth stashing before picking a QB who isn't all that different from the others still on the board at that time.
If you lean heavy on RBs early and often in the draft and looking for a value QB much later, Orton is a great value pick who should go much later than most starting QBs but may out-produce many of them and see a significant rise in his production in Denver's new system. If Orton's preseason has you a little skittish, you can also go after some other potential bargains like Carson Palmer coming off injury, Matt Schaub, or Trent Edwards with more weapons and be in a similar QB position as teams who missed out on the elite QBs but still got a lesser one earlier while you stockpiled potential feature back point machines.
